GOP Poll: Bost Leads Bailey By 6
A new GOP poll not affiliated with either campaign shows Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) leading former Sen. Darren Bailey by six points in the 12th District GOP primary.
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A new GOP poll released Wednesday shows incumbent Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) with a six point lead in his primary battle with former state senator and 2022 GOP nominee for governor Darren Bailey.
Republican pollster M3 Strategies, who has had a recent string of polling successes in races like the first round of the 2023 Chicago Mayoral race and 2022 GOP statewide primaries, shows Bost leading Bailey 45.2% to 38.7%, a difference of 6.5%. 16.1% of respondents are undecided with two weeks to go until the March 19 primary.
If undecideds were forced to choose a candidate, Bost’s lead expands to 54-46%.
The poll surveyed 473 likely voters from March 2 to March 4 with a margin of error of 4.48%.
Bost is strongest with older voters, leading by 30 points among voters over 65. Bailey wins all other age groups.
Neither campaign responded to requests for comment on the poll Wednesday.
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Bost in the race, but Trump voters are split among the two. They are tied at 43% among Trump voters. Bost dominates Bailey among voters who plan to support former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
Trump leads Haley in the heavily Republican district 80%-12%.
The GOP pollster who conducted the survey says Bailey still has a path to victory.
“This is still a turnout election,” said pollster Matt Podgorski. “If Nikki Haley drops out before March 19, many non-Trump voters in Illinois may stay home. This would put Bailey right in the hunt.”
As of late Tuesday, there hadn’t been an indication from the Haley campaign if she would mount an effort in Illinois. [UPDATE: Haley suspended her campaign Wednesday.]
12th District Republican voters view both Bost and Bailey favorably. 65% have a favorable opinion of Bost, while 18% have an unfavorable view. Bailey has 61% favorable opinion with 22% unfavorable. Each man had about 17% who had never heard or had no opinion of him.
Many expected the Trump endorsement to be the golden goose in the race, but polling shows 64% said Trump’s position had no impact in their decision, or they weren’t aware of the endorsement.