Is GOP "Blowing" Best Shot at Congressional Pickup?
Former Winnebago County Judge and congressional candidate speaks at a campaign event in Rockford in January. (Photo: Rockford Register Star)
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Multiple Republican insiders say they’re concerned the GOP is squandering its chance to pick up the state’s only competitive congressional seat in November.
Congressman Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) won the 17th Congressional district in 2022, a “gerrymandered monstrosity” that carves through much of northwest Illinois to pack Democrats from Rockford, the Quad Cities, Peoria, and Bloomington-Normal into a single district.
Democrats have publicly and privately feared Sorensen, a progressive former TV weatherman, is vulnerable in the blue collar district, but it isn’t clear if the Republican candidate, retired Winnebago County Judge Joe McGraw, is breaking through.
President Biden won the lines of the new 17th District by about 8 points in 2020, but the old 17th, before the district lies were redrawn, was won by both Democrat Cheri Bustos and Republican Donald Trump.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy intended to make the 17th a priority, personally lobbying Sen. Neil Anderson (R-Andalusia) to get into the race. He also attempted to lure House GOP Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savana) into the mix. Former State Representative Dan Brady weighed a bid but declined.
“With Trump at the top of the ticket, that really scared some [candidates] off,” said a Republican consultant familiar with the race who asked not to be identified. “That old district [Trump] won in ‘20 was much more rural, had a lot more agriculture. Democrats took all of the Republican areas and slapped them into [Congressman] Darin LaHood’s new district. It’s not as red as it used to be and all of those good Trump voters are gone.”
So Republicans landed on McGraw, who has focused his campaign, at least publicly, almost completely on fixing issues at the border, ending illegal immigration, and “law and order” policies.
“The message is where they’re going wrong,” said the consultant. “What connects that district? A lot of manufacturing. A lot of these voters work in manufacturing. I don’t think that the McGraw campaign is doing a good enough job of leaning into the economic issues Trump talks about like jobs going overseas. A populist economic message, like fighting for the middle class and fighting to keep jobs here.”
Another top Republican agrees.
“This gerrymandered monstrosity of a district was always going to be hard to win,” said another Republican insider, who asked not to be identified. “But to win it, you have to have a candidate who relates to moderate voters in the urban areas of the district. Running around shouting about immigration doesn’t impact anyone.”
But, Sen. Dave Syverson (R-Cherry Valley), a longtime McGraw friend, says he does relate to the district, calling him a “cigar smoking Harley rider.”
(Disclosure: I worked with Syverson when I was on Senate staff about ten years ago.)
Syverson says McGraw is doing all the right things to win the race.
“Joe has been working so hard everyday from early morning until late at night. You see how many events and places he’s going to,” Syverson said. “I think he’s exceeded expectations for a challenger [in a district like this]. Sorensen isn’t working. He’s not involved. [Someone so progressive] helps Joe with those manufacturing and blue collar Democrats.”
Syverson says he believes Washington DC Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, are watching the race closely.
But the GOP insider we spoke to was not impressed.
“This district needs a centrist candidate talking about kitchen table issues,” the insider said. “Boiler plate Republican language on the border isn’t going to cut it.”
The Republican strategist believes Democratic enthusiasm has increased with the ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket energizing Democrats.
“I think [Sorensen is] less vulnerable today than he was last week,” the consultant said.
The McGraw campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
As of June 30, McGraw had around $475,000 cash on hand, while Sorensen has around $2.6 million.
