Five Most Endangered Incumbents on Tuesday
Sen. Doris Turner (D-Springfield), who is locked in one of the most expensive legislative battles in state history with Rep. Sandy Hamilton (R-Springfield).
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OPINION
As we’ve been keeping tabs on legislative races across the state in just four days, we highlight five incumbent lawmakers most likely to lose their seats.
Sen. Michael Hastings (D-Frankfort)
Hastings has rained down hell upon himself with scandal after scandal this year. It has come out that he forced a taxpayer settlement with a former employee, was alleged to have bullied a female lobbyist (who pretty much everyone likes), and has been accused of abusing his ex-wife.
I’m told Republicans felt like they had a shot in this race even before the Hastings s#it hit the fan, but they’re running a brutal ad against Hastings on cable in the district over the last few days.
Hastings may be good as gone.
Rep. Suzanne Ness (D-Crystal Lake)
It’s pretty easy to make the argument Ness probably never should have been in the House in the first place. She benefitted from a non-existent campaign from former Rep. Allen Skillicorn and got some help in a tough McHenry County district during redistricting. Governor Pritzker won the district by just two points in 2018 and Republican Connie Cain is one of the few GOP House candidates actually up on TV.
My guess is this one will be close either way.
Sen. Kris Tharp (D-Wood River)
It really isn’t fair to call Tharp an incumbent. He was appointed to the 56th Senate District seat in July (after Rachelle Crowe resigned to become U.S. Attorney for Southern Illinois) and actually hasn’t served a session day since joining the chamber. Republicans have St. Louis broadcast TV ads up for their candidate, Madison County Board member Erica Conway Harriss. She’s a former TV reporter and comes across great on TV. Donald Trump won this district two years ago, and JB Pritzker won it by around 8 points in 2018. Though, Rauner’s numbers were deflated (because southern Illinois Republicans abandoned him in droves) and he had to deal with third-party candidate Sam McCann peeling votes away, too. Darren Bailey is going to sing the song of Madison County better than Rauner ever did.
Sen. Doris Turner (D-Springfield)
This may turn into the most expensive legislative race in state history. (I have this race on pace for around $6 million, and I’m not seeing anything larger than $4 million. Correct me if I’m wrong.)
Turner was appointed to replace Andy Manar when he left for the Governor’s office. The 48th was redrawn to remove a lot of Manar’s rural southern hinterlands and added more of Springfield and Decatur, hoping to shore it up for Turner. She faces Rep. Sandy Hamilton (R-Springfield), who was appointed to former Rep. Mike Murphy’s Springfield district that was eliminated in redistricting. The ads in this district have been absolutely vicious. But the hits on Turner targeting her husband’s criminal background and corruption accusations of mishandling of state funds during her time in a state agency are surely resonating.
Rep. Keith Wheeler (R-Oswego)
Wheeler got hosed in redistricting, being moved from a safe Republican district to the new 83rd, which Gov. Pritzker won by around six points in 2018. (Biden won it by 18 in 2020.) Democrats have put a pile of money behind Matt Hanson, a former Kane County Board member and longtime engineer for BNSF Railway.
Wheeler’s best chance at being saved is if the 14th Congressional district race gets super tight and brings in some unexpected Republican votes.