Few Flips, Close Races Expected in Senate in November
Illinois Senate Republican Leader John Curran (R-Downers Grove).
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While a dozen or more House races could be up for grabs in November, a combination of heavily gerrymandered districts and Democratic fundraising dominance make it likely no Senate races will change hands, or potentially, be particularly competitive in November.
The Senate GOP only has four members up for re-election in 2024 (Bennett- now open, Bryant, Plummer, Stoller), who all come from safe GOP districts, so the Senate Republicans won’t be defending any seats.
Of the 18 Senate Democrats on the ballot this fall, only Sen. Patrick Joyce (D-Essex) represents a district President Biden won by fewer than ten points (6.9%) in 2020. Joyce has around $500,000 in his campaign coffers, while his Republican opponent, Philip Nagel, has around $18,000.
While Republicans said last year they expected to play in as many as seven races in 2024, that field appears to have considerably shrunk.
Some Republicans believed before the primary embattled Sen. Mike Hastings (D-Frankfort) is in play. President Biden won that district by 13 points in 2020 and Hastings survived a challenge by 981 votes of around 83,000 votes cast in 2020. But Republican nominee Samantha Gasca has around $1,000 in the bank while Hastings has around $335,000. Sen. Steve Stadelman (D-Rockford) also represents a district Biden won by 13 points in 2020, though most don’t believe Stadelman is in danger. Republicans were excited about their nominee, Crystal Soltow, but she has rarely been seen on the campaign trail and just opened a fundraising committee this week. Stadelman also has around $335,000 in the bank.
The only Republican challenger with any fundraising success so far this cycle is Sally Owens, the GOP nominee facing Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria). Owens has around $90,000 in the bank, but is still facing a gigantic hole. Koehler has around $425,000 on hand.
“The smart move is for Senate Republicans to bank as much money as they can this cycle and save it up for 2026,” one Republican strategist said Thursday on the condition of anonymity. “There’s nothing to gain this year and a lot to lose in two years.”
We made multiple attempts to reach the Senate Republican campaign arm Thursday, but our messages weren’t returned.
Sources tell The Illinoize, though, that Senate Republicans are attempting to hire staff in some of the Democratic-held districts.
Even if Republicans make a play, they face huge hurdles coming up with the cash to compete.
Senate President Don Harmon, between his personal and Senate Democrat accounts, has around $13.4 million on hand. Senate Republican Leader John Curran (R-Downers Grove) has about $1.9 million on hand.
Curran likely wouldn’t get much help from his caucus, either. Eleven Senate Democrats other than Harmon have more than $400,000 cash on hand, while just three Republicans other than Curan (Rezin, Syverson, Chesney) have more than $250,000 in the bank.
While delegates and officials at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week consistently shared optimism about winning the presidential race, nearly no attention was paid, at least publicly, to congressional or legislative races.
[note: a previous version of this story indicated Sen. Andrew Chesney (R-Freeport) did not contribute to the Senate Republican campaign arm. That was incorrect. We regret the error.]