"Fair Tax" Referendum May be Heading to Failure
Governor JB Pritzker is joined by administration officials announcing his Graduated Income Tax proposal, or “Fair Tax” in 2019. (Source: Chicago Tribune)
With four weeks to go before Election Day, a source tells The Illinoize internal polling shows the proposed constitutional amendment to change Illinois’ income tax system from a flat tax to a graduated income tax is currently failing.
Neither the Vote Yes for Fairness Committee, supported by Governor JB Pritzker or The Coalition to Stop the Proposed Tax Hike, the groups opposing the effort with around $45 million in donations from billionaire Ken Griffin would confirm the existence of the polling to The Illinoize last night.
Our source, who is working closely with one of the groups involved in the referendum, tells us support for the graduated tax referendum has held slightly above 50% for multiple weeks, even as both sides spend millions of dollars attempting to change minds.
“The big spending on both sides really hasn’t moved the numbers much,” said our source. “Everyone is banking on turnout. [Democrats] are relying on the blue wave to carry them, [the business community is focused] on turning people out for this issue specifically.”
While 50% plus one, a simple majority, is usually required to pass legislation or help a candidate win a two-way race, an amendment to the constitution requires 60% of the voters on the question voting yes. An amendment can also pass with a simple majority of all ballots cast in the election, but that is harder as the graduated tax referendum is at the top of the ballot and will be skipped over by relatively few voters.
For instance, the last time a constitutional amendment appeared on the ballot in Illinois was 2016, when voters approved a so-called “lockbox” for transportation funding. The question received 78% yes votes on the actual question, and about 69% of all the ballots cast in the election. About two million more people voted for President but not on the constitutional amendment.
Governor Pritzker has given the “Vote Yes” committee around $60 million, much of which has been spent on television ads. Pritzker and supporters have assured voters taxes would only be increased on the top 3% of earners in the state, while opponents say the legislature shouldn’t be given a blank check for a tax increase without changing structural reforms first.
View our interviews with both sides of the debate here.