"Extinction Level Event for Suburban Republicans"
Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield), center, and Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville), right, speaking at a 2019 news conference at the Statehouse, are two suburban Chicago Republicans in tough races to retain their seat. Also pictured is Rep. Jeff Keicher (R-Sycamore).
State candidate fundraising reports were due at midnight Thursday into Friday, and the cash disparity between Democrats and Republicans leaves many GOP legislators and candidates in a precarious position heading toward Election Day.
As I was working my way through campaign finance documents last night, a Republican political operative texted me to see if I had seen a couple of specific races. I said “yes. How bad is this going to get?” He replied “bad.”
So I texted a few other Republican politico types last night to get their feeling, and let’s just say there’s no joy in Whoville after looking at the financial drubbing GOP legislative candidates are getting.
“This election is going to be an extinction level event for suburban Republicans,” one veteran operative told me. “The party has lost the suburbs because of the President’s backward policies, abrasive personality, and ultimate failure to act responsibly or effectively to COVID-19.”
Another operative was less cryptic.
“It won’t be great, but not as bad as it could be,” he said. “Local trumps national.”
Either way, with little more than two weeks to go before Election Day, Democrats have gigantic fundraising leads over most GOP candidates.
Here is a handy dandy excel file for you to follow along.
It appears the GOP has cut loose Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) following her controversial racist and homophobic comments about her opponent, who is Black and gay. She’s almost out of money with nothing in the hopper, while Ken Mejia-Beal is sitting on around $165,000 for the last couple of weeks.
Republicans never put any money behind Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee) who teased he would quit the ballot earlier this year, but decided to continue. He has around $100,000 cash on hand, while his Democratic opponent, Suzanne Ness, is looking at around $610,000 to spend down the stretch.
Democrat Martha Paschke has about a 10:1 cash lead on Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva). She raised around $570,000 last quarter compared to Ugaste’s around $40,000.
Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville) is in dire straits compared to his heavily funded challenger Janet Yang-Rohr. Yang-Rohr has outspent Wehrli 4:1 and has around $625,000 for the last two weeks, while Wehrli is sitting on around $80,000.
I’ve heard from Republicans that polling shows Rep. Brad Stephens (R-Rosemont) in good shape, but he’s been outspent by Michell Darbro heavily thus far. She’s purchased around $500,000 in TV ads and Stephens has yet to report a TV buy.
Thanks to a late $200,000 each from billionaire Ken Griffin, both Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst) and Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) appear to have the resources to be competitive over the last two weeks.
Rep. Joyce Mason (D-Gurnee) is running Chicago broadcast TV ads with a $760,000 to $27,000 spending lead over Republican challenger Dan Yost. It’s interesting why Mason is up on broadcast, but if I had $1 million to spend the last couple of weeks, I’d spend it.
Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine) barely held on to his seat two years ago, and has relatively even spending in his rematch with Democrat Maggie Trevor to this point. She has more cash on hand, and, as you may expect, the Democrats have more to send her way.
Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park) has been outspent around 7:1 thus far and his Democratic challenger, Dave Vella, has around a 4:1 cash lead down the stretch.
Considering it’s a heavily Trump district, many Republicans pegged Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steelville) as ripe for the picking. At this point outspent David Friess more than 3:1 and has a big cash advantage. But, money doesn’t change your party when Donald Trump will win that district so big.
In the Senate, it’s looking more and more likely the seat held by current Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove) is going to flip. Rep. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago) has run a spectacular campaign thus far and she has a massive cash lead on Jeanette Ward.
Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria) has already spent around $1.1 million to fend off a challenge from Tazewell County Treasurer Mary Burress. He has about twice as much cash left as her, but clearly, there’s something going on down there.
The old saying is “signs don’t vote.” Money doesn’t vote either, but it sure is an effective tool to change minds.
