Environment Improving for Republicans
A ballot drop box in Sangamon County.
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With under two weeks remaining in the fall campaign and facing gigantic financial disadvantages, numerous Republicans around the state are feeling optimistic.
In conversations with multiple Republican pollsters and operatives, there is a seeming consensus that many races around the state, especially down ticket, are trending toward Republicans.
Multiple pollsters say they’re seeing a trend toward Republicans in the last couple of weeks, some estimated the average anywhere between two and seven points. While Democrats have seemingly staked their hopes on the abortion issue, one pollster says it may not be an issue resonating as much with undecided moderates.
“Abortion seems to be slipping as an issue. [It impacts Democrats] tremendously,” the pollster said. “All that really matters is the 30% of voters in the middle, and abortion isn’t the top issue for moderates. Do they care about it as much as they do property taxes and the economy? They don’t.”
Though, Republicans fear the vast outspending by Democrats could hurt the GOP in down ballot races. In Chicago TV, more than a dozen House Democratic candidates are running ads on broadcast television, while zero Republicans have bought airtime.
“[Gubernatorial nominee Darren] Bailey isn’t going to win, and neither are any of the other statewide Republican candidates,” said one operative. “But if he can keep the margin close enough it stops blowouts in congressional and legislative seats, I think we can pick up some seats people aren’t expecting us to.”
Some Republicans we spoke to specifically mentioned downstate races that could benefit, including the heavily contested 48th Senate District race in Springfield in Decatur where Rep. Sandy Hamilton (R-Springfield) is challenging Sen. Doris Turner (D-Springfield). Metro East races, including Erica Conway Harriss challenging Sen. Kris Tharp (D-Wood River) and Jennifer Korte challenging Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville) could also swing toward the GOP.
Furthermore, Real Clear Politics this week moved two congressional races, the 14th District and the 6th District into the “toss up” category. The 13th District race was already there and RCP has the 17th District leaning to flip to the GOP. A few points bump could make some of those races closer than expected, even though all of the Republican congressional candidates are being massively outspent.
One of the biggest unknowns about turnout is how the expansion of vote by mail will impact the outcomes of close races. We’re told Democrats are expecting a gigantic turnout, potentially higher than 2018, which would likely benefit their candidates, especially in the suburbs.
But, as the old campaign saying goes, “it’s all about turnout.”
