Eight Things We're Watching in the Chicago Mayor's Race
Candidates for Chicago Mayor at a forum earlier this month. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
OPINION
With the race for Mayor of Chicago captivating the political class today, here are eight things we’re watching as voters head to the polls.
Turnout, turnout, turnout
Frontrunner (if you want to call it that) Paul Vallas, the former Chicago Public Schools CEO and 2014 running mate of Gov. Pat Quinn, looks like a near lock to make the runoff. Vallas is expected to be strongest in the northwest side of the city, where you find lots of police and firefighters, as well as around the Loop with CEO’s and the penthouse types. If polling is any indicator, it is nearly an impossibility that Vallas gets to a majority tonight. Pollster Matt Podgorski tweeted last night he expects turnout to top 600,000, which would be around 40,000 more than four years ago. Podgorski’s final poll, by the way, showed a wide open race for second. Turnout also impacts other candidates…
The race space and Chuy’s chances
Congressman Jesús Chuy Garcia, who was initially considered a frontrunner, if not the top frontrunner when entering the race, has run a pretty terrible campaign. He has exceptional name ID and a progressive base, but his biggest issue may be getting Latino voters to the polls. As of the 2021 American Community Survey (ACS) from the Census Bureau (remember that, redistricting fans?), Blacks made up 29.2% of the city population while “Hispanic or Latino” made up 28.7%. It’s a nominal difference and, while the different Latino communities in the city don’t vote as a block, Garcia’s chances may rest on how many he can get in his camp. Add the fact that it’s traditionally very difficult to get Latinos to the polls, especially in an off year election, and it may be make or break for Garcia. Meanwhile, there are seven African American candidates in the race.
Do progressives coalesce?
It’s no secret progressives are making up a larger block of Democratic primary voters in recent years. Garcia was expected to be the recipient of the support, but Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson has resonated, earning truckloads of money from the Chicago Teachers Union and the endorsements of some of the most well-known liberals in the city. It’s possible Johnson, Garcia, Ja'Mal Green, and even Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago) could all split the progressive vote enough to keep themselves out of the runoff.
Lightfoot may be toast
There certainly is a path for Lightfoot to make the runoff , but some things are going to have to go right for her. She was elected as a reformer in 2019 and the gruff, tough, no-nonsense “nobody nobody sent” that was outside of the machine. Her term has been an epic failure from finances to crime to you name it. She’s squarely in the underdog column again and could sneak into the runoff if Garcia and Johnson stumble.
Will there be a surprise for the second spot?
Probably not. Willie Wilson’s numbers have been flat, while someone like Buckner or Sophia Green, who would be really interesting candidates in the runoff, would have to wayyy overperform expectations. If I had to pick one, I’d say Wilson, but I don’t think enough people take him seriously (as they shouldn’t.)
Is it possible it isn’t decided tonight?
Absolutely. Over 200,000 vote by mail (VBM) ballots have already been processed and tens of thousands more could be out there. As long as its postmarked today, a mail vote has two weeks to arrive. If you get a race for second place within a couple of hundred votes, we could be up and down with the daily count for the next two weeks.
The next five weeks will be ugly
No matter who advances tonight, the next five weeks won’t be cake and ice cream for the competitors. Vallas will be painted as the second coming of Trump, Lightfoot will be painted as a pro-crime failure. If it’s Johnson or Garcia, who knows?
Do I have a prediction?
I expect Vallas to advance, probably somewhere around 30%. My perception is Johnson has momentum going in, but it sure feels like he, Lightfoot, and Garcia are all stacked up together and you could flip a three-sided coin on that one.