Ears to the Ground
We still expect House Speaker Chris Welch and House Democrats to gain seats in November. But, how many?
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OPINION
Here’s a rundown of some of the things we’re hearing around the state as campaign season prepares to turn to October:
A bunch of people thought my rankings of the top ten races to flip was some sort of guarantee of how many seats Republicans were going to lose in the House. I’ve held firm for a long time that I expected the House GOP to lose seats in November. Money and maps and organization matter. I’d put the number today at four, but a lot can happen between now and November 5.
The amount of cash being spent by House Democrats is just astonishing. They’re putting money into races that nobody thinks are competitive, like Rep. Dee Avelar (D-Bolingbrook), Rep. Joyce Mason (D-Gurnee), and Rep. Anthony
DeLuca (D-Chicago Heights).Former Rep. Tim Ozinga’s campaign committee and associated groups are funding the opponent of Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Downers Grove). Nobody is really considering it a competitive race, so that’s an interesting investment.
I gave a talk last week and was asked what races to watch to show it would be a really good night for either party. I told them if the GOP takes out Stava-Murray, it would mean a big night for the GOP. I also said Democrats would be happy if they took out Rep. Jackie Haas (R-Bourbonnais).
Some southern Illinois GOP friends are super excited about Jay Keeven’s chances against Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville) and think it’s going to take a lot of Dem resources over the last five weeks to “save” her.
I talked about legislative races Brenden Moore of the Bloomington Pantagraph and Decatur Herald & Review on the radio this week.
If I have some time this weekend, I’ll add up the money House Democrats are snowing House Republicans under so far, and Gov. Pritzker hasn’t written a check yet.
Keep an eye on the 17th. I talked to a DC friend yesterday that believe Congressman Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) is “totally” beatable, even with a less-than-glowing candidate like Joe McGraw. The NRCC’s first ad went scorched earth and then the Sorensen camp went nuclear winter with their first attack on McGraw this week. This thing is going to get ugly.
There are Republicans who are trying to convince me Jim Carris has a legitimate shot at beating Congressman Brad Schneider (D-Highland Park), though I haven’t seen any polling that makes that a credible statement.
Senate Republicans look like they’re about to dump more money into the race of Philip Nagel, challenging Sen. Patrick Joyce (D-Essex). Senate GOP Leader John Curran (R-Downers Grove) put another $200,000 from his campaign into the Senate GOP coffers this week, too. If I got Curran drunk on Malort, he’d probably tell me they don’t actually think Joyce was beatable, but they know they have to try to steal one this year before they’re defending a ton of seats (including his) in 2026.
Keep an eye on what statewide Democrats do on the trail over the next five weeks. It may give you an indication of who wants to move up to U.S. Senate or Governor in 2026.