Did the GOP Debates Change Any Minds?
(L-R) Jesse Sullivan, Sen. Darren Bailey, and Gary Rabine participate in a debate at WGN-TV this week. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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OPINION
I’m a little bit of a skeptic about the value of debates.
In advance of this week’s debates, I found five undecided Republican primary voters from around the state. I asked them five simple questions:
If you were asked to choose a candidate for Governor before tonight’s debate, who would you have chosen?
After watching the debates, who, in your opinion, did the best?
Was there a candidate who surprised or impressed you?
Was there a candidate you believed performed worst tonight?
Now that you’ve seen them debate, who would you vote for if the election were tomorrow?
Note, this isn’t a scientific poll or focus group, but it gives you an interesting view of some rank and file voters around the state. Let’s look at their responses.
Voter 1: Male, 52, St. Clair County
Bailey
Sullivan
Sullivan
Irvin
Sullivan
Voter 2: Female, 43, Cook County
Irvin
Schimpf
Rabine
Solomon “How did that guy get up there?”
Irvin
Voter 3: Male, 37, Piatt County
Irvin “He was the most likely to compete with Pritzker.”
Sullivan
Everyone except Irvin
Irvin “Why wouldn’t he answer any questions?”
Sullivan
Voter 4: Female, 62, DuPage County
Irvin
Irvin
Sullivan
Bailey
Irvin
Voter 5: Male, 40, Livingston County
Irvin
Bailey
Schimpf
Sullivan “I was disappointed he did a poor job appealing to a broader audience.”
Irvin
So, two of the five changed their minds after the two debates. One went from Irvin to Sullivan and another went from Bailey to Sullivan. Three others were Irvin voters going in and were Irvin voters coming out. That’s good for him as the onslaught will be coming from all sides over the next 31 days.
As I mentioned after the debate, I thought Sullivan was the clear winner and looked like someone who could have a broad appeal.