Decision Time Nears for Davis and Kinzinger
Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) shakes hands at the Illinois State Fair in 2018. Davis is considering between running in a safe district in 2022 or running for Governor.
As the General Assembly prepares to adopt a new congressional map this week, two Republican congressmen directly impacted by political gerrymandering have to decide to stay and fight, or seek to move up the ranks.
Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) was drawn out of his current 13th district and into the new 15th district. The 13th was drawn to be more likely won by a Democrat, stretching from Belleville and East St. Louis to Champaign-Urbana in a long, snaking district.
The proposed new 15th surrounds the new 13th, touching the Iowa, Missouri, and Indiana borders. Donald Trump won the district by some 39 percentage points in 2020, so the 51-year-old Davis would likely receive another decade in Congress and the potential opportunity to chair the House Transportation Committee or move into a top leadership post. Davis, though, has openly flirted with the idea of running for Governor in 2022, and numerous Republicans tell us adjustments made to the congressional map appear to be an attempt by Democrats to keep Davis out of the race against Governor JB Pritzker.
Davis also appears to be the preferred candidate of Ken Griffin, the richest Illinoisan, who could help Davis go dollar to dollar against the billionaire Pritzker on the airwaves next fall.
Davis keeps a notoriously close circle and is considered a political figure who tends to follow his gut more than the advice of others. His campaign says he’s waiting for the final version of the congressional map to pass, but Davis hasn’t responded to my messages since the weekend, so he’s either not sure, or not willing to say where he stands at this point.
Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon) has become a pariah among many Republicans for his outspoken opposition to former President Donald Trump. Saturday’s latest version of the map moves Kinzinger into the new 16th district against fellow Republican Darin LaHood (R-Peoria).
Kinzinger would likely be considered a heavy underdog if he pursued a primary race against LaHood with a heavily pro-Trump constituency in the downstate-based district.
Kinzinger’s home lies around 3.5 miles south of the new 14th district, drawn to protect Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville). According to the fabulous Illinois Election Data site and twitter feed, Attorney General Kwame Raoul won the new 14th by around 8 points in 2018 and Comptroller Susana Mendoza won the district by slightly more than one point in 2016.
If Kinzinger pursues a race with Underwood, it could be a hotly-contested member vs. member race next November. He could also choose to pursue a U.S. Senate race against Democrat Tammy Duckworth in 2022, and Senate Republicans appear to be interested in Kinzinger, a former Air Force pilot.
He issued a statement following the first map release last week seemingly hinting a U.S. Senate race was on the table, but hasn’t spoken publicly since the new map was introduced over the weekend.
Kinzinger has not returned multiple messages.