Will Court Ruling on Slating Actually Help Elect Any Republicans?
Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville) on the House floor in 2020. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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When the Illinois Supreme Court ruled Friday a hastily-passed Democratic measure this spring banning the “slating” of legislative candidates couldn’t apply to the November election, it cleared the way for at least ten Republicans to appear on November ballot.
Slating is the process allowing each political party to put a candidate on the November ballot if no candidate files to run before the primary. It’s a strategy former House Speaker Michael Madigan often used to target potentially vulnerable Republicans after the primary.
But the last time a slated candidate ran and won was 2018, when now-Sen. Mary Edly-Allen (D-Libertyville) won a House race after then-Rep. Nick Sauer resigned due to a particularly icky revenge porn allegation that he ended up serving time behind bars for.
So do Republicans believe they can actually win any of the districts they’ve slated candidates for?
Even the most optimistic Republican we spoke to Monday called the idea a “long shot.”
The most vulnerable Democrat on the list is believed to be Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville.) Her Metro East district is one of the few urban or suburban districts in the state which appears to be trending for Republicans.
President Biden won the district by six points in 2020 and Governor Pritzker won it by two points in 2022.
The GOP loves their candidate, former Edwardsville Police Chief and current Troy City Administrator Jay Keeven. Stuart has also been the face of some polarizing legislation, including a bill allowing multi-occupancy all-gender bathrooms and was a main sponsor of a bill mandating tampons be made available in all school restrooms, including for boys.
“Katie Stuart is so out of touch with this district it’s comical,” one top Republican operative said Monday. “Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink at this race to help her, but she’s in huge trouble.”
But even House Republican Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savanna) tempered expectations during the RNC in Milwaukee about their chances in the district.
It’s a race McCombie called “interesting.”
“That’s not one of our original flips, because we didn’t even know [if we’d have a candidate],” she said.
One Democrat source called GOP hopes to flip the district a “pipe dream.”
“Katie is one of the most underappreciated talents in the caucus,” said the Democratic insider. “She has a huge financial advantage and is everywhere in that district. She’s going to be fine.”
In nearly every other district Republicans have slated a candidate for November, demographics are not on their side.
The closest House race appears to be the 53rd House District in the northwest suburbs, recently vacated by now-Sen. Mark Walker (D-Arlington Heights). His replacement, Rep. Nicolle Grasse (D-Arlington Heights) faces attorney Ron Andermann.
Andermann created a campaign finance committee last month but has yet to report any large donations. Grasse has raised about $10,000 in large donations since forming her committee in July.
One suburban Democrat told The Illinoize House Dems “aren’t worried about” Grasse’s chances. President Biden won the district by 20 points in 2020.
The rest of the districts appear far more difficult for Republicans to play in. Republican Ashley Jensen is slated to face Edly-Allen in the 31st Senate district, which President Biden won by 23 points in 2020.
Other slated candidates are running in far more overwhelmingly Democratic districts, like Terry Nguyen Le of Chicago, who is slated to face Rep. Hoan Huynh (D-Chicago). It’s a district President Biden won by 77 points in 2020.