Could Harris Be a Boost to Democratic House Candidates?
Former State Representative LaToya Greenwood is seeking a return to the chamber after losing her seat in 2022. Some Democrats believe the ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris could help Greenwood in her East St. Louis-based district.
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The likely ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket this fall could have impact on down ballot races, including multiple contests for the Illinois House, Republican and Democrat consultants tell The Illinoize.
Both consultants, who spoke to The Illinoize on the condition of anonymity so they could speak freely, believe Harris’ selection will help Democrats in multiple competitive districts, especially those focused on African American and female voters.
Republicans are defending seven seats won by President Biden in 2020 while Democrats, who gerrymandered the legislative map in 2021, are not defending any districts won by former President Trump.
But Biden’s poor performance in a June debate as well as ongoing questions about his age and ability to complete a new term was believed to be “tamping down” Democrat enthusiasm, said a Democratic strategist.
“Other than Donald Trump, the couch was our biggest enemy,” the consultant said. “In 24 hours, Vice President Harris has turned those concerns completely around.”
The Democratic strategist pointed to suburban races where Democratic women are facing Republican men, specifically the 45th House District, where Democrat Elmhurst City Council member Marti Deuter faces Republican Addison Township Supervisor and former State Representative Dennis Reboletti, as a district where and excited base of female voters could dictate the race.
“Women are going to be fired up to defeat Donald Trump and his MAGA minions,” the consultant said. “Kamala Harris is going to make this an historic election for women all across the country and here in Illinois.”
Democrats also believe their chances have increased in the 52nd House race, where Democrat Maria Peterson is challenging Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills) and the 81st District where Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Downers Grove) faces Republican Aaron Porter.
Downstate, Republicans are concerned about the future of Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt), the freshman representative who upset former Rep. LaToya Greenwood in 2022.
Schmidt’s 114th District includes much of predominantly-Black East St. Louis, and one Republican operative we spoke to Monday believes Schmidt is in big trouble.
“There is no amount of money on the planet that can change the math for Kevin Schmidt,” the consultant said. “If African-American turnout reaches 2020 levels, he's done.”
One district where Republicans believe they could have an advantage is the 76th District, where moderate Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) isn’t seeking re-election. Republican Liz Bishop faces Democrat Amy Murri-Briel in the heavily union, heavily blue collar district.
Republicans we spoke to believe blue collar workers are more likely to support Trump and less likely to support a progressive candidate like Harris.
“Everything looks different than it did Sunday morning,” the Democrat consultant said.