Census Data Delay Gives GOP Hope of Stopping Dem Gerrymandering
A map of Illinois 4th Congressional District, a majority Hispanic district that has been called one of the “most strangely drawn and gerrymandered congressional districts in the country.”
Political observers around the state and country nearly fell out of their collective chairs this week when a U.S. Census Bureau official said data to be used for redistricting wouldn’t be available until late July.
State House, Senate, and Congressional districts must be redrawn every ten years with new decennial census data. That data is typically expected by April, and the legislature typically does its reapportionment in the final weeks of the legislative session in May. On top of that, there’s a constitutional requirement for the state to have districts in place by June 30th of this year, potentially sending the mapmaking process, and even the 2022 primary, into a potential spiral.
Republicans appear to want to use the opportunity to get a seat at the table they would otherwise have been shut out of.
We spoke Thursday with the redistricting point person for both the House and Senate Republican caucuses, Rep. Ryan Spain (R-Peoria) and Sen. Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington).
Spain said he was “stunned” when he saw how late the census data is now expected.
“We thought we may get it a little bit late, and we thought getting it late might be the end of February, the beginning of March,” Spain said. “So to hear that that could potentially be delayed till middle of summer after our constitutional deadline for passing a map is really quite remarkable.”
Both Spain and Barickman support a constitutional amendment to have legislative districts drawn by an independent commission, similar to a proposal thrown out by courts in 2016.
Spain says he believes both sides have an opportunity to create a fairer mapmaking process.
“How does this create an opportunity for us to reimagine the way we draw districts,” Spain asked. Let’s do it with cooperation and working together and let’s put partisanship out of the primary consideration for how the maps are drawn and who are drawing the maps. If that could be a byproduct of this very strange situation from the census, that would be very welcome.”
Barickman says the legislature can use delayed data as an opportunity to rebuild trust in government.
“We live in a time where there is a lack of faith and confidence in government doing the right thing and looking out for the normal voter, and there’s this continual belief that the people in power are self-serving,” Barickman said. “There’s no greater test of that than the redistricting process, which is likely the most political decision made by a political body once a decade. So, the opportunity exists to demonstrate to the public that this government this year is wildly different than what they have come to expect. Whether or not this government can take this opportunity, whether the majority will take the opportunity to earn some credibility with the public remains to be seen in how they handle this.”
(Disclosure: I managed Barickman’s first primary race for Senate in 2012 and have long considered him a close friend).
Barickman was a House member during the 2011 redistricting, and says he knows firsthand how Republicans have been shut out of the process.
We asked Senate Democrats about what the announcement from the Census Bureau would mean and if they would make changes to the typically insulated, partisan mapmaking process.
“We continue to monitor the situation,” said John Patterson, a spokesman for Senate President Don Harmon.
But new House Speaker Chris Welch struck a dramatically different tone, who said after his inauguration January 7, he would advocate for a fair mapmaking process.
“In my time in the legislature, I’ve always supported fair maps,” Welch said. “I’m gonna reach out to the Governor, I’m gonna reach out to the Senate President and the other Leaders and we’re gonna work on this collaboratively and try to do the best we can and try to be as transparent as we can. I think that’s how you build trust, is by doing it in a transparent way.”
When asked if Republicans would be at the table, Welch said “they’re gonna be a part of the process.”
Spain says he has hope for Welch to hold up to his words on redistricting reform.
“I was really pleased to hear when newly elected Speaker Welch made those comments,” Spain said. “I have a lot of respect for Chris Welch, I serve on the Executive Committee where he was chairman, and he was always fair, always trustworthy. So, I do think he is very credible and believable when he talks about making changes and including making changes on this topic.”
Both Republicans say they plan to hold Governor JB Pritzker to a 2018 campaign pledge to Capitol Fax to veto any remap drawn by politicians or party leaders.
“Yes, I will pledge to veto,” then candidate Pritzker said. “We should amend the constitution to create an independent commission to draw legislative maps, but in the meantime, I would urge Democrats and Republicans to agree to an independent commission to handle creating a new legislative map. That designated body should reflect the gender, racial, and geographic diversity of the state and look to preserve the Voting Rights Act decisions to ensure racial and language minorities are fully represented in the electoral process.”
“I think [Pritzker] should be accountable to the public to maintain that pledge whether he lives up to it is his choice,” said Barickman.
Some Democratic strategists have publicly declared the Democratic super-majority legislature could pass a map using census estimates instead of final data to avoid bringing Republicans to the table.
“I disagree with the suggestion that the state can simply mockup estimates and draw a map that can later be altered by a court,” Barickman said. “I think it’s constitutionally flawed. The constitution requires things like districts being substantially equal in population. And estimated data is clearly not final data, and it puts that constitutional requirement in jeopardy. It’s absurd to believe that a legislature could enact a map using invalid data and subject that map to a court who would later alter it. That suggestion would require not a map being drawn by a legislature, not a map being drawn by a commission, but instead a map being drawn by judges.”
Barickman says drawing fairer maps is a bipartisan issue.
“I think there are a lot of Democrats in this state who believe that we would have a better representative style of government if we had a fair mapmaking process,” he said. “But there are some very partisan Democrats who recognize that it would be to their political disadvantage to do some good government measure like that, and thus far politics has ruled the day on that.”
“I think that most of the people serving in the legislature are very earnest about wanting to tackle these challenges,” Rep. Spain said. “And as we’re coming out of the grip of [former House Speaker Michael] Madigan, after 50 years in office and most of the time as speaker, now is the time to really figure out what else we need to do to solve these problems. Because there were so many topics that were historically off limits for Madigan. Those become relevant things that the voters are interested in and want to be in a position where they’re sending representatives to Springfield that are going to tackle those issues. I care more, ultimately, about wanting to continue living in the state of Illinois and having it be a successful place for my children to grow up than whether or not I’m sitting in the room in Springfield.”
Depending on how long census data is delayed, Republicans think it could have an impact on the 2022 primary. Petitions typically begin to be circulated shortly after Labor Day and candidates file for office around Thanksgiving before the March primary. Spain thinks there will be a conversation about delaying the March election.
“I think that’s on the table,” he said. “I think this information is still so new from the Census Bureau, we’re going to verify the time frame that they’ve indicated. And obviously we can’t change the deadlines in the constitution (for passing the map). We certainly could change the schedule for the primary season. If making changes to the primary schedule gives us an opportunity to develop a map that’s based on independent principles and takes us away from partisan gerrymandering, then that time is worth it.”
But the bottom line for Republicans is their hope they can have a say in legislative maps that have put them at a competitive disadvantage for nearly two decades. They could also prevent competitive primaries between as many as three Illinois Congressmen, Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville), Darin LaHood (R-Dunlap), and Mary Miller (R-Oakland).
(Disclosure: I worked on Davis’ first race in 2012 and worked a Republican primary against Miller in 2020).
If Republicans were able to wedge other concessions from Democrats, it could negatively impact Congresswomen Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline) and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), who currently represent 50-50 or marginally Republican districts.
“Any map that’s drawn, it would be hard to disadvantage Republicans in this state any more than what we currently have,” Spain said. “But the opportunity that really gets me excited is we have a new map, we have a presidential midterm, we’re already seeing extreme overreaching and overreaction from a policy standpoint of Democrats, and I really believe that our opportunity as a Republican Party is entirely available in front of us no matter what kind of map is thrown our way to take advantage of this special moment. This is our 1994 type of moment as a Republican Party, particularly in the state of Illinois.”
Barickman, who is considering a run for Governor next year, says Republican input on a map could benefit his caucus, which is outnumbered in the Senate 41-18. Every seat in the House and Senate will be on the ballot in the eventual new districts.
“Our state has a long history of having some level of bipartisanship in its representation, some level of divided government,” Barickman says. “I think the point is that a fair map allows Republicans to put forth candidates who come from communities and represent the values of communities and gives them a fair shake in front of voters. That’s what a fair map ensures.”