Can Darren Bailey Beat Pritzker?
Numerous Republican insiders are skeptical of Sen. Darren Bailey’s (R-Xenia) chances of defeating Governor JB Pritzker if he holds on to win the GOP primary for governor June 28.
As polling indicates conservative Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) is pulling away from the rest of the GOP field, numerous Republicans say they’re concerned Bailey won’t be able to defeat billionaire Governor JB Pritzker in November.
Bailey, a southern Illinois Senator from Clay County dresses and sounds like a farmer mixed with a bit of Baptist preacher. If he holds on to his 15-point lead in the GOP primary, he would likely be the most conservative Republican nominee in at least the past 100 years.
Considering his underdog status in the primary and funding deficit to Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, the question becomes, can Bailey do it in the General, too?
Not likely is the consensus answer of dozens of Republican insiders, strategists, and current and former elected officials who spoke with The Illinoize.
“In politics, anything is possible,” said one Republican lawmaker. “I don’t envision a scenario in which he beats [JB] Pritzker.”
“Pritzker has endless campaign funds and I think he’ll just chew Bailey up in the suburbs,” said another GOP official.
Another GOP official compared a Bailey general election race to that of fellow conservative Senator Bill Brady in 2010, who lost to incumbent Pat Quinn in the face of a Republican wave year.
“Just like suburban moderates didn’t support Brady in 2010, the remaining moderates in the GOP will either skip the Governor’s race or vote for Pritzker,” said a longtime GOP operative. “I also don’t see how Bailey matches the Pritzker money.”
Pritzker has already given his campaign more than $90 million for the cycle and will likely spend tens of millions more. Bailey has raised about $10 million so far, much of it from conservative billionaire Richard Uihlein.
“It’s incredibly uphill even in what will be a good Republican year,” said another GOP operative. “Everyone wants to talk about suburban voters and his positions, but look at it from an even more mechanical level. How does he raise $100 million? Or $50 million, or even $25 million? Is Uihlein going to fund the race? It’s pretty likely Griffin takes a pass. [Bailey] will win the primary with probably less than $500k on hand and Pritzker will bury him in July and August.”
Though some Republicans we spoke to said they believe there are worst case scenarios for Pritzker that open a door for Bailey in the fall.
“With $6 gas and the potential for power blackouts [this summer,] yes,” said a downstate lawmaker. People haven’t seen anything like this in fifty years. None of the traditional playbook works now that gas is already $5 a gallon here. If there are blackouts and old people die because they can’t power their AC, I’m telling you, it could be bad for Pritzker.”
Even some relatively moderate Republicans say Bailey would be inheriting a situation beneficial for the GOP.
“In this environment of crime, corruption, inflation, record gas prices, wokeness, and an embattled Joe Biden, man,” said a former GOP lawmaker. “Anything can happen.”