Budget Plans "Touch and Go" With Two Weeks Left
The Illinois Senate chamber in Springfield.
With the clock ticking toward the abnormally early adjournment of the spring legislative session, there remain numerous open questions before Democrats finalize a state budget.
As we’ve talked with Democratic lawmakers, lobbyists, staff, and other insiders in recent days, we’re told meetings with Democratic lawmakers on budget priorities are just getting underway. Revenue will likely be a difficult question for Democrats to answer as they lay out those priorities.
The Governor’s budget proposal planned around $2 billion less in revenue next year than the current fiscal year, partially due to 2020 income tax filings (and the money we pay in) moving into the current fiscal year.
The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) estimated earlier this month the FY23 revenue estimate would drop to around $46.3 billion. Democrats still have some remaining funds from the federal bailout that were spread out past the current fiscal year, but it isn’t clear yet how Democrat leaders want to utilize any remaining funds (after some was used to pay down some, but not all, of the hole in the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund).
There is also the question of what lawmakers will do about high gas prices and inflation. The Governor proposed removing the inflation adjustment for the upcoming fiscal year, but that’s just 2¢ per gallon, which doesn’t do a lot to lessen the blow of the $4.50 per gallon I payed in suburban Cook County yesterday.
Senate Republicans want to cap the 6.25% sales tax on gasoline at 18¢ per gallon, but its unlikely Democrats go along with them on anything in an election year and would likely reduce some of the expected revenue even before gas prices spiked. Remember, the motor fuel tax of around 39¢ goes to road projects. But only 1% of the sales tax goes to infrastructure. The rest goes to the state’s general revenue fund.
We also don’t know what gas prices will look like a year from now. If production goes up, demand goes down, and Russia deposes Vladimir Putin for literally anyone else, the credit card receipts could be remarkably lower than they are today.
The bottom line is we have 11 days to figure out a lot of moving parts and lawmakers have a long way to go.
As for what’s top on the agenda, the top Democrat budgeteers aren’t talking. An interview request for House Majority Leader Greg Harris (D-Chicago) was declined and our messages to speak to top Sen. Elgie Sims (D-Chicago) weren’t returned.