Bailey Expected to Return to Ballot in 2024, May Challenge Bost
Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) shouts from his seat during the debate for Speaker of the House in January. Bost may receive a primary challenge next year from former GOP gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey.
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A potentially gigantic congressional primary looms in southern Illinois as sources close to former GOP Senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey is considering a primary challenge to incumbent Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro.)
Some southern Illinois Republicans say they’re concerned Bost isn’t taking a potential Bailey challenge seriously enough, while sources close to Bost say the incumbent, who just began his fifth term, “won’t be outworked.”
A source close to Bailey says he is considering a run against Bost or a potential return to the Senate by challenging Sen. Jason Plummer (R-Edwardsville). Plummer’s seat is on the ballot in 2024.
“Darren Bailey will be on the ballot in 2024,” the source said.
Bost and Bailey had similar results in the counties in the 12th District in November. Bailey won 79% in Clark County, Bost won 78%. Bost won 78% in Crawford County, Bailey won 77%. Bost had 81% in Cumberland County while Bailey had 80%. Bailey won 88% in Edwards County to 87% for Bost. Bost won 77% in Franklin County to Bailey’s 76%.
In Cumberland County, Bailey had seven more votes than Bost. In Effingham County, generally known as the base of Bailey’s political support, Bost earned ten more vote than Bailey.
Bailey, of course, was facing tens of millions in spending from Governor JB Pritzker, while Bost faced just token opposition.
But a top southern Illinois Republican says many GOP primary voters are happy with Bost.
“Bost has been all over the district taking care of his constituents,” the source said. “He’s conservative, and even those who supported Bailey for Governor are uneasy [about his candidacy for congress] and think Bailey should think twice about running against Mike Bost.”
A southern Illinois lawmaker believes Bost is working overtime to solidify his support among conservatives.
“Bost appears to be taking it seriously given his schedule so far this year,” the lawmaker said. “He seems to be everywhere.”
But a longtime southern Illinois GOP operative believes a potential Bailey challenge poses a major threat to Bost’s future in Congress.
“Bost is in serious trouble,” the operative said. “They need better fundraising and a better social media presence.”
Bost finished 2022 with around $390,000 on hand. Comparable Republicans, Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Oakland) ended the year with around $310,000 and Congressman Darin LaHood (R-Peoria) had around $4 million cash on hand.
Bost staffers are apparently telling southern Illinois Republicans they have polling showing him ahead in a theoretical race with Bailey.
“So did Rodney Davis,” said the GOP operative, noting Davis had polling showing him ahead in a primary with Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Oakland) until the final weekend before last June’s primary. Miller and Bailey are closely aligned politically.
Bost’s campaign would not confirm a poll exists.
Bost advisors are adamant that the incumbent is focused on his job and constituents and play down any potential challenges. But the proposition of a costly, mean spirited primary has numerous southern Illinois Republicans concerned.
“Most [around here] believe Bost will win,” said a southern Illinois Republican lawmaker. “But it will be ugly.”