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OPINION

Is ultraconservative southern Illinois farmer Darren Bailey dragging down the Republican ticket? Or is what was expected to be a pro-Republican environment just not developing in Illinois?

I don’t know. Maybe a little of both?

If you look at the poll we released yesterday, Bailey is getting his tail kicked by a pretty wide margin in every demographic. His statewide approval rating is 23 points underwater (26% favorable, 49% unfavorable). He’s 13 points underwater with men (32%-45%), 31 points underwater with women (21%-52%), and moderates, the key to winning an election in Illinois, view him 62% unfavorably and 15% favorably. You don’t win a lot of elections in this state 47 points underwater with moderates. Governor Pritzker is winning moderates by a 54%-32% rate. Game over.

But add the fact Bailey is getting creamed in Chicago, suburban Cook, and the collar counties and only winning downstate by six (49%-43%) shows this one is not trending in his direction.

Obviously, it’s hard to imagine people in Chicago are super excited for a guy with a southern drawl who hardly gets north of I-70 accusing their hometown of being a “hellhole” anytime there’s a TV camera. Yes, the media has played this up, but Bailey hasn’t given them much else to talk about.

He has absolutely had a chance to talk about the dire circumstances facing people in Roseland, Englewood, or Garfield Park who see more guns than textbooks while kids, have no educational opportunities, and no jobs in their neighborhoods. I’ll bet that feels like hell. Maybe it would be smart for a gubernatorial candidate to highlight those neighborhoods and have, you know, a plan for helping lift those communities up and stopping this endless cycle of violence and sadness.

Would these numbers be specifically better had Richard Irvin won the primary? Maybe. But the hapless group of Rauner rejects running his campaign sure weren’t putting him in a position to win.

If you look down the ticket, Bailey is doing better than most of the other statewide Republicans. U.S. Senate nominee Kathy Salvi is down 23 points, Secretary of State candidate Dan Brady is down 18, Treasurer nominee Tom Demmer is down 21, and the generic legislative ballot shows Republicans down 21.

Ouch.

But it’s clear the issues on voters minds today aren’t benefitting Republicans. The top issue is guns, which is clearly on the minds of voters following the deadly mass shooting at the Highland Park Independence Day parade last month. Abortion is also among the top three issues for voters right now, and we’ve seen Democrats are trying their darndest to fire up their liberal base over Roe, even though you almost can’t possibly make abortion more legal in Illinois.

I would argue it isn’t all bad news for the GOP, though. If history is any indicator (Columbine, Sandy Hook, Charleston, Orlando, the list goes on), fervor for gun reform wanes the farther out you get from the latest mass shooting incident. That may not change this time, but if it gets back to normal, Republicans may be able to gain traction with their economic general election message.

The Republican brand is surely damaged heading down the stretch to the November election, but will talented politicians like Demmer and Brady be able to right their own ship even if Bailey is snowed under by Pritzker’s millions? It’s hard to tell. They’re at a cash, name ID, and partisan disadvantage.

They need something to change, or November 8 could be a political bloodbath.

Patrick Pfingsten

@pfingstenshow

patrick@theillinoize.com